H7N9 is not pandemic yet, but there is ‘heightened’ concern

Numerous reports are describing the heightened concern of a potential pandemic situation occurring in China. Total number of verified cases up to 91, with the death toll still at 17, there were 87 confirmed cases just yesterday. Stay tuned for our updates on our FastVax progress! Below are a few good articles and a great EpiVax slide deck.

Human to Human Transmission, still a possibility?

Heightened Threat from H7N9
issued by Ascel Bio on 2013.04.17.
Ascel Bio‘s quantitative models are showing a heightened threat from H7N9 and a significantly increased probability of community crisis.

 2013.04.17 H7N9 vs 2013.04.03 H7N9

The probability of a high impact IDIS Category 4 or higher event has increased from 11% to 29% over the past fourteen days.  Further, the likelihood that the event will be a lower impact locally containable IDIS Category 1 or 2 event has dramatically dropped from 56% to 9%.

Ascel Bio’s quantitative process draws from official disclosures and other reliable open source reports.  Ascel Bio is monitoring a national and international public health response incorporating poultry culling, vaccine development, and airport screenings. The broad measures being taken testify to an increasing uncertainty about the virus and its potential to induce an international pandemic.

The recognition of mild and asymptomatic cases in humans, which portend more widespread activity than currently recognized, and family clusters, which indicate potential person-to-person transmission, are also important.

There has also been an increase in the geographical spread of the virus. With the virus now affecting persons in Shanghai and Beijing, the threat of disease transmission and social disruption is heightened… full story here.